Focusing on EIA during the day, Platts Energy said that as of the week of August 24, it is eCrude oil price cnbcxpected that the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory will decrease by 0 million barrels, the U.S. EIA gasoline inventory is expected to decrease by 60,000 barrels, and the U.S. EIA refined oil inventory is expected to increase by 700,000 barrels. .
Last Sunday, Trump once again asked OPEC and major crude oil producers to lower oil prices. However, OPEC and Russia ignored Trump's request at the meeting in Algeria and did not reach a consensus on increasing production. Subsequently, international oil prices rose sharply, rising to 80 US dollars per barrel, setting a three-year high. In the early hours of this morning, Brent crude oil continued its gains and closed at $887 per barrel, setting a four-year high for two consecutive days.
First of all, OPEC may make a decision on the future of the production reduction agreement at its meeting in June this year. Since the implementation of the production reduction agreement, the international crude oil market has gradually moved towards rebalancing. OPEC Secretary General Barkindu said that the implementation rate of the production reduction agreement has exceeded 50%, and since 207, the oversupply situation has also been reduced by 90%. OPEC’s monthly report recently showed that OPEC’s total monthly output decreased by 200,000 barrels per day from last month to 960,000 barrels per day, which was mainly affected by the reduction in production in Angola, Algeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Libya. At the same time, OPEC raised its forecast of crude oil supply growth for non-OPEC oil-producing countries this year by 80,000 barrels/day to 70,000 barrels/day. In addition, OPEC has raised its forecast for this year's global crude oil demand growth by 10,000 barrels per day to 60,000 barrels per day.
The construction of pipeline transportation is difficult, but crude oil production has only increased. IEA data shows that Canadian crude oil production will increase by 20,000 barrels per day in 208 and will continue to increase by 250,000 barrels per day in 209, which forces Canadian oil companies to use rail transportation as an alternative. As a result, the export volume of railway transportation has risen sharply this year, reaching a record high of 80,000 barrels per day in May.
OPEC Secretary-General Barkin said that after President Trump criticized OPEC on Twitter for artificially pushing up oil prices, OPEC began to discuss how to ease production cuts. It is not uncommon for the United States to put pressure on OPEC. Some US energy ministers have asked oil-producing countries to take action to help lower oil prices.
For the global crude oil market, the bottleneck of shale oil production growth will have a profound impact. Goldman Sachs stateCrude oil price cnbcd in the report that the global crude oil market is tightly supplied, which requires more shale oil as a buffer, but crude oil output in the Permian oil-producing regions of the United States cannot increase rapidly. Therefore, Goldman Sachs believes that the crude oil market has pushed up the shale oil cost curve, stimulating other shale oil producing areas to carry out more drilling activities.
Siemens CEO Joe Kessel told CNN this week that Trump’s decision means that their company cannot start any new business in Iran. Once a company is found to have violated the restrictions, it may be kicked out of the US financial system and be subject to a series of other penalties.
However, in the face of the current situation, Russia is clearly capable of changing, but recently Russian President Putin said that Russia is not interested in the continued increase in oil prices. For Russia, the price of 60 US dollars per barrel is the fairest price. This has exacerbated the recent decline in oil prices.