The main reason for the plunge in oil prices this time is the market’s concerns about OPEC’s production increase, because the United States has stated that it will impose sanctions on Iran’s nuclear Venezuela, which will create a huge crude oil supply gap in the Middle East. Therefore, OPEC and Russia must increase production to fill thNew York Mercantile Exchange Crude Oil Pricee gap. , Otherwise it will give the United States another opportunity, and if it wants to increase production, it will inevitably withdraw from production cuts.
Take a closer look at the overall trend: The most important thing in Dow Theory is the high and low points of the band, which is the easiest place to overlook. Both the high and low points on the daily line and the high and low points on the 5-minute chart are worthy of attention, and both have value. We can judge the direction, choose the entry point, set the order stop loss and understand the holding time based on the high and low points of a period of market trend.
Saudi Arabia also naturally understands that while they regained a foothold in the US market, they also helped his traditional allies in power to suppress natural gas and oil prices. Of course, Saudi Arabia has regained control of the U.S. oil market this time because Iraq’s crude oil exports to the U.S. have declined, which has fallen from a high of over 800,000 barrels per day in April this year to a four-week average of less than 400,000 barrels per day. Level.
Affected by the sanctions, French oil giant Total officially abandoned its $5 billion gas field project in Iran. In addition, companies including Maersk, Peugeot, General Electric, Boeing and Siemens have cut ties with Iran to avoid punishment from the United States, and Russia’s Lukoil also said that it will shelve its search for a joint venture in Iran. The company's plan. The Iranian crude oil industry is suffering a major blow.
The International Energy Agency estimates that it is more conservative. They believe that the world's idle capacity that can be increased in a short period of time is only 0 million barrels per day. If the time period is extended to a few months, this figure is about 400,000 barrels per day, of which 60% is located in Saudi Arabia. Analysts said that he believes that Saudi Arabia can actually only increase production by nearly 0 million barrels per day. But even if calculated at 400,000 barrels per day, these idle capacity can only make up for the current output gaps in Iran, Angola, Nigeria, and Venezuela.
Tonight, the 7th adjustment window for refined oil prices this yearNew York Mercantile Exchange Crude Oil Price will open. Prior to this, oil prices have experienced a pattern of nine rises, seven falls and one stranded. Gasoline has risen by 700 yuan/ton, and diesel has risen by 680 yuan per ton. The last oil price adjustment was at 24:00 on August 20, when gasoline and diesel prices were all reduced by RMB 50/ton. According to Longzhong Information, at present, the retail price of 92# gasoline in most areas of the country is 2-4 yuan/liter, and diesel is 82-02 yuan/liter.