International crude oil prices closed up moderately on May, and the trend showed a V-shaped reversal. Although the negative impact of US crude oil inventories and output growth is still fermenting, the decline in OPEC production and the intensified crisis of the Iran nuclear agreement have effectively boosted oil prices. On the previous day, oil prices closed up 0.50 US dollars, or 0.74%, to 64 US dollars per barrel. Oil prices rose to a maximum of 6Crude oil analysis pdf60 US dollars at the top of the day, and low at 62 US dollars at the bottom.
At the end of the historic meeting held at the luxurious Capella Hotel on Singapore’s Sentosa Island, Trump and Kim Jong Un signed an agreement dedicated to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and a lasting peaceful regime. This is the first meeting between the leaders of the two countries. This document, which Trump considers to be very comprehensive, stated that the two sides promised to hold follow-up negotiations and cooperate on the development of bilateral relations. This historic meeting will help ease market tensions and help risk assets such as crude oil regain buying support.
Fritsch pointed out that the Iran nuclear agreement will temporarily become the focus of the oil market, while other fundamental factors such as inventory levels and production levels will temporarily stay behind the scenes and will not resurface until the nuclear agreement issues are resolved.
The U.S. CPI data was released overnight, but the results were disappointing. As a result, the U.S. dollar plunged sharply in the intraday market. It once fell from the 9 line to the 960 line. Although there was a strong rebound afterwards, the market finally returned to the downtrend. , The overall day was a sharp decline, and the dollar’s high fall also brought long support to crude oil, but crude oil did not rise significantly during the session. Compared with Wednesday’s sharp rise, the crude oil price on Thursday After recording a new high of $789, the market's upward trend began to converge, and finally stayed near 750 and ended.
To sum up, the spot crude oil market has strong support. Before the above benefits dissipate, crude oil prices are expected to rise above the $70 mark. At the same time, oil prices will also usher in regular data API, EIA inventory and other data every week. If there are no surprises, investors are advised to do more crude oil prices lightly in the market outlook.
Abstract: The U.S. government is sparing no effort to completely suspend Iran’s crude oil exports. At the same time, the Iranian government has also made a targeted response, stating that it will hinder shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. There is a high probability Crude oil analysis pdfthat this kind of result will not happen, but the fierce rhetoric between the two sides has caused the confrontation between the United States and Iran to heat up rapidly.
Oil prices are generally supported by production cuts led by OPEC and Russia. But even so, data released by the Russian Ministry of Energy on Monday showed that the country's monthly crude oil production rose by 20,000 barrels per day to 0.97 million barrels per day.
OPEC is constantly reducing its own production capacity to maintain the balance of the overall crude oil market. The more the United States produces, the more OPEC will reduce its production. It can be said that the United States directly restricts OPEC's production. The US crude oil production is now approaching Russia, and it may increase further in the future. Therefore, OPEC will not be able to reduce production indefinitely. When to end the production reduction has become a focus of attention.
UBS economists said that now that oil prices are getting closer and closer to US$00/barrel, high oil prices have once again brought a completely negative impact. The optimal oil price region that is conducive to global economic growth seems to be between US$50/barrel and US$70/barrel.