Oil pipeline capacity restrictions in the Permian region of the United States continue to suppress crude oil prices in the region. As crude oil production increases beyond the capacity of existing pipeline infrastructure, producers must transport crude oil inCrude oil market price today more expensive forms of transportation, such as trains and trucks, and the U.S. crude oil prices are expected to rise in the future.
Although the oil export output of the United States has been increasing, this is mainly based on the reform of shale oil technology. There are hidden dangers behind this prosperity scenario. For example, the hydraulic fracturing technology behind the technological revolution requires a large amount of capital support, which gave it soil for capital development after the 2008 financial crisis. In 205, the net debt of the hydraulic fracturing industry was US$200 billion, an increase of 00% over a decade ago. The high debt is the hidden resistance behind it.
At two o'clock in the morning on May 9th, Beijing time, US President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and resume sanctions on Iran. Trump stated that the United States will seek to impose the highest level of economic sanctions on Iran, and any country that helps Iran acquire nuclear weapons will face sanctions.
Li Yan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that at present, the trend of international oil prices has not broken away from the weak shock range. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustments is likely to be stranded or fall. Calculated based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil products will start to show a downward trend, with an amplitude of about 0 yuan/ton, that is to say, the downward trend of the next round of price adjustment cycles is not stable.
The impression is that oil prices are not high enough to stimulate sufficient oil investment. On April 9, the price of Brent crude oil futures LCOc exceeded US$74 per barrel, the highest level since 204 months.
If you believe the weekly oil production estimates at that time, the daily oil production in the United States will climb froCrude oil market price todaym 0.55 million barrels in early April to 0.79 million barrels at the end of May, an increase of 240,000 barrels in about 8 weeks. However, the fact is that US oil production is not only lower than this level, but also not growing at all.
As for Saudi Arabia, it has also shown its tendency to increase production. On Thursday, Reuters quoted three sources as reporting that before Trump announced sanctions on Iran, senior US officials called the Saudi Crown Prince in hopes of obtaining Saudi support. According to sources, the United States is worried that sanctions on Iran will reduce Iran’s supply of the international crude oil market, thereby pushing up oil prices. When the United States announced new sanctions on Iran, Saudi Arabia immediately stated that it was ready to increase production to cope with supply shortages. Later, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as revealing that the United States has privately asked Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC oil-producing countries to increase crude oil production by about 0 million barrels a day. Some Gulf countries were surprised by Saudi Arabia's statement and said that Saudi Arabia had not discussed with them beforehand. They believe that Saudi Arabia is under pressure from the United States.
Goldman Sachs believes that Brent crude oil will rise sharply again, and may rise to 80 US dollars per barrel, but investors need to wait patiently until later this year, because uncertainty increases over time and global The extent of the supply disruption is also unclear.
Nigeria’s oil exports are also declining because an important oil pipeline has been closed. Foreign media estimates that Nigeria’s oil exports may fall from just below 800,000 barrels per day in June to 40,000 barrels per day in July. In addition, Nigeria's Bonny light oil export depot may be affected by force majeure.